NEWS Global trade poised to grow despite uncertainty

Global trade is holding strong and set to grow, even as political tensions rise. Find out what the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 reveals.

Although uncertainty about future trade policy is extremely high, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 reveals that global trade is likely to grow moderately faster than in the previous decade. Forecasts predict that goods trade will expand at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029. Even if proposed US tariff hikes go ahead, global trade is still expected to grow – just at a slower pace. 

Most nations see trade as vital for economic growth, which means increased US trade barriers could strengthen ties among other countries. Furthermore, the US share of global imports and exports is significant but not enough to unilaterally dictate the future of global trade. This balance gives confidence that global trade will keep moving forward.

Four key players are poised to lead the charge in trade growth over the next five years: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. These nations are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both growth speed and trade volume. India, notably, is predicted to become the third-largest contributor to global trade growth, following China and the United States.

Despite predictions of more regionalized trade, the report highlights record-long trade distances, averaging 5,000 kilometers in 2024. The share of trade within major regions has dropped to a new low of 51%, underscoring a continued shift toward globalized supply chains.

The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 offers comprehensive data and analysis on global trade trends, covering nearly 200 countries and territories. The report is packed with insights that decision-makers can’t afford to miss. And brand new this year: interactive online charts and graphs allow users to explore customized insights tailored to specific regions, product categories, and trade flows.

The report was commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business. It was finalized in February 2025 using data and forecast updates through January 2025.

The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 is good news for business: Global trade is proving remarkably resilient, with new growth opportunities emerging across key regions. Dive into the insights and explore the interactive data at dhl.com/tradeatlas.