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Air Freight Market Update

February 2025

Global air cargo tonnage up just 1% YoY in January 2025, impacted by an early Lunar New Year.

Global Air Cargo Update

Global Air Cargo Demand
  • Global air cargo demand dropped in Jan’25, mainly due to lower volumes from China, driven by an earlier-than-usual Lunar New Year.
  • Decline in global air cargo growth partially offset by intra-Americas growth, boosted by flower exports ahead of Valentine’s Day.
Global Air Cargo Capacity
  • Freighter volatility rose in early 2025, with dozens of freighter flights cancelled during Lunar New Year period.
  • Global belly capacity growth decelerated, with certain regions facing constraints due to geopolitical events.
Regulation/News
  • China’s suspension from US ‘Section 321’ customs-free entry may impact China-US e-commerce market
  • All Nippon Airways launches 3-weekly Haneda-Istanbul flights in Feb’25, expanding European network after recent launches to Milan and Stockholm.

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Regional Air Freight News

Europe

  • Europe to Asia Pacific air cargo demand declined in early 2025 due to Lunar New Year impact.
  • Air cargo carriers implement ReFuel EU Aviation surcharge to offset higher fuel costs from SAF mandate.

Asia

  • Demand partially recovered as the US delayed the de minimis ban, prompting e-commerce promotions, while new product introductions from tech shippers added support
  • Airlines shifted capacity to Europe and Transatlantic, but e-commerce demand remains uncertain once US tariffs take effect.

Middle East and Africa

  • Several airlines have cautiously resumed flights to Middle East and Africa, after the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in January.
  • Middle East–Europe air cargo rates surge 63% YoY in Jan’25 amid Red Sea disruptions.

Americas

  • Miami International Airport’s air cargo traffic surges as flower imports rise 3% YoY, with daily arrivals exceeding 1,500 tons ahead of Valentine’s season.
  • Brazil-Europe trade lane to expand capacity, as Latin Americas plans to increase flight frequencies from São Paulo Guarulhos International Airport to major airports in Spain and Italy during the second half of 2025.

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