Mapping the shifting landscape of global trade

A five-year baseline forecast (Chart 1.1) indicates that trade volume growth will match or slightly outpace GDP growth, assuming only limited implementation of proposed U.S. tariff increases. If all proposed U.S. tariff increases are implemented, this would result in much slower trade expansion, but such tariffs are unlikely to reverse the growth of global trade.

Analyzing trade growth along the dimensions of speed (trade volume growth rate) and scale (absolute increase in trade volume), the data projects that India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines will be among the fastest-growing markets. At the regional level, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia are expected to see the highest trade volume growth rates, but wealthier, slower-growing regions – particularly Europe – will contribute the most to absolute trade growth. Forecasts also predict broadening trade growth across a wider set of countries.

Global trade continues to stretch over longer distances, with the average distance of goods (Chart 3.6) trade reaching a record 5,000 km in the first nine months of 2024. Despite discussions around nearshoring, no global trend toward regionalization has emerged. Trade shares by region (Chart 3.2) and country income group (Chart 3.4) have remained relatively stable, with Europe, East Asia & Pacific, and North America accounting for the largest shares. High-income economies continue to dominate global trade flows.

The data shows the limited extent of recent realignments of global trade along geopolitical lines. After declines in 2022 and 2023 in trade between versus within blocs of close allies, geopolitically driven shifts (Chart 4.1) in global trade patterns appear to have stalled in 2024. Also, while the share of U.S. imports directly from China (Chart 4.6) has declined, indirect trade through third countries has maintained strong connections between the two economies. Meanwhile, the share of world trade involving countries that are close allies of neither superpower is rising.

The composition of global trade across broad categories of goods remains relatively stable, with machinery and electrical equipment topping the list (25%), followed by mineral products (18%).

Most trade continues to involve manufactured goods, with recent shifts in trade composition mainly driven by price fluctuations in key commodities, particularly mineral fuels.

Concluding with a broader perspective, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 finds that 21% of all value created by the world economy (Chart 6.1) crosses national borders, with wide variation across industries. Trade intensity also varies widely across countries, with smaller economies engaging in cross-border trade at higher rates than larger ones. Overall, it’s clear that most business remains domestic, indicating much potential for future trade growth.

Explore additional trade patterns and trends, look at specific goods, countries, or regions – and find convenient options to download data and images.

1. Trade Growth
   Annual growth of goods trade value and volume, worldwide and by country
2. Region-wise Shares of World Trade
   Breakdown of goods trade by region and country income group, overall and by product category
3. Trade Between vs. Within Geopolitical Blocs
   Breakdown of goods trade by geopolitical bloc, overall and by product category
4. Average Geopolitical Distance Based on UN Voting
   Average "geopolitical distance" traversed by goods trade, worldwide and by country/region, overall and by product category
5. Average Geographic Distance and Regionalization
   Average distance (kilometers) traversed by goods trade and percent within regions, worldwide and by country/region, overall and by product category
6. Trade Shares by Origin/Destination
   Shares of country/region exports and imports with selected origins and destinations, overall and by product category
7. Trade Shares with Top Five Origins/Destinations
   Shares of country/region exports and imports with top five origin/destination countries (measuring concentration), overall and by product category
8. Foreign Value Shares by Country Pair
   Shares of value moving between origin countries/sectors and destination countries/sectors considering multi-country value chains
9. Trade Intensity (Value Added)
   Shares of value ultimately serving foreign markets, overall and by country/sector,  considering multi-country value chains

A common thread across the entire DHL Trade Atlas 2025 is the resilience of trade in a turbulent global business environment. This is apparent in the growth trends and forecasts across countries and regions, the data on trade over long geographic distances and between geopolitical blocs, the trade patterns by product category, and the analysis highlighting the headroom for future trade growth.

While history shows that trade integration can reverse, it also demonstrates how global trade has remained remarkably resilient in the face of various stress tests, including the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S.-China trade conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic, and wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The results in this report underscore this resiliency and suggest that decision-makers should approach oversimplified narratives about decoupling, derisking, and deglobalization with caution. Instead, they should prepare to seize opportunities and manage risks in an increasingly complex global trade environment.