Is your business ready for international growth? To sell to the world, you need to understand the world – specifically, which markets promise the most prosperous opportunities. And that’s why the all-new DHL Trade Atlas 2025 is an invaluable tool…
Produced in partnership with the New York University Stern School of Business, the Atlas analyzes a wealth of data from around the world to map the shifting landscape of global trade.
To help readers pinpoint business opportunities, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 features data-backed insights, covering nearly 200 countries and territories.
This edition arrives at a pivotal time, with international trade tensions dominating the headlines. Yet, the Atlas highlights positive signals on the horizon.
Global trade is forecast to grow at a modestly faster pace over the next five years than during the preceding decade. Furthermore, President Trump’s proposed tariff increases are not likely to reverse the growth of global trade. Even if all proposed U.S. tariff increases enter into force and other countries retaliate in turn, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – albeit at a much slower pace.
Some trends remain largely unchanged from the previous edition of the Atlas: trade flows continue to stretch out over longer distances, and the superpowers of China, the U.S. and India are set to retain their leading trade growth positions. But there are new hotspots of opportunity emerging – with Viet Nam, Indonesia and the Philippines expected to rank highly for speed and scale of growth over the next 5 years.
The resilience of trade in a turbulent global business environment is evident. The results highlighted in this report suggest that decision-makers should prepare to seize opportunities and manage risks in an increasingly complex global trade environment.
With maps, charts and other data visualizations to bring the facts to life, the report serves as a unique resource for emerging trade opportunities – helping your business to focus its international growth strategy on the most promising and prosperous markets.
Plan your cross-border growth strategy with the DHL Trade Atlas 2025.
If you’re looking to – or already do – ship internationally, this report is essential reading. Brought to you by the world’s most international company, it reflects DHL's position at the heart of global trade and their commitment to help customers identify the most prosperous markets for expansion.
Download the report nowDHL Trade Atlas 2025: 10 Key Takeaways
1. Faster forecast growth, greater uncertainty
Global trade is forecast to grow at a modestly faster pace over the next five years than during the preceding decade. However, record high uncertainty about future trade policies clouds the outlook.
2. Trump tariff impact
Even if all tariff increases proposed by the Trump administration are implemented and countries retaliate in turn, global trade is forecast to continue growing – but at a much slower pace.
3. Made-in-China content finding new routes to U.S.
The share of U.S. imports coming directly from China continues to fall, but U.S. reliance on made-in-China content has not declined substantially. U.S. imports from other countries contain more inputs from China, and U.S. direct imports from China may be underreported.
4. Global geopolitical shifts limited
Geopolitically driven shifts in global trade patterns remain limited and appear to have stalled in 2024. While trade between blocs of close allies declined relative to trade within these blocs in 2022 and 2023, there were no further declines over the first nine months of 2024.
5. Recent growth leaders
Three countries ranked among the top 30 worldwide on both the speed (growth rate) and the scale (absolute amount) of their goods trade volume growth over the past five years: the United Arab Emirates, Viet Nam, and Ireland.
6. Forecast future growth leaders
During the next five years, India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth. India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind only China (12%) and the United States (10%).
7. Standout regions
South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia are forecast to achieve much faster trade volume growth than all other regions from 2024 to 2029. However, slower-growing Europe is forecast to generate a larger share (30%) of the world’s total trade growth. High income economies are forecast to generate 58% of trade growth, while low- and middle-income economies generate 42%.
8. Long distance trade going strong
Contrary to predictions that recent disruptions would lead to more regionalized trade patterns, trade took place over the longest average distance on record during the first nine months of 2024 (5,000 km). The share taking place inside major geographic regions declined to a new low (51%).
9. Trade leaders by sector
Most trade is in manufactured goods, but price increases have boosted the value of trade in mineral fuels. From 2017 to 2022, the categories with the largest increases in the value of goods traded were mineral fuels, electrical machinery and equipment, industrial machinery, and pharmaceuticals.
10. Large headroom for trade growth
Even after decades of increases in the integration of the world economy via trade, only 21% of the value of all goods and services produced around the world ultimately ends up in a different country from where it was produced. There is still very large potential for future trade growth.
Plan your cross-border growth strategy with the DHL Trade Atlas 2025.
If you’re looking to – or already do – ship internationally, this report is essential reading. Brought to you by the world’s most international company, it reflects DHL's position at the heart of global trade and their commitment to help customers identify the most prosperous markets for expansion.
Download the report now
