Is your Kiwi business ready for international growth? To sell from New Zealand to the world, you need to understand the world – specifically, which markets promise the most prosperous opportunities. And that’s why the all-new DHL Trade Atlas 2025 is an invaluable tool…
Produced in partnership with the New York University Stern School of Business, the Atlas analyzes a wealth of data from around the world to map the shifting landscape of global trade.
To help New Zealand exporters pinpoint business opportunities, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 features data-backed insights, covering nearly 200 countries and territories.
This edition arrives at a pivotal time, with international trade tensions dominating the headlines. Yet, the Atlas highlights positive signals on the horizon.
Global trade is forecast to grow at a modestly faster pace over the next five years than during the preceding decade. Furthermore, President Trump’s proposed tariff increases are not likely to reverse the growth of global trade. Even if all proposed U.S. tariff increases enter into force and other countries retaliate in turn, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – albeit at a much slower pace.
Some trends remain largely unchanged from the previous edition of the Atlas: trade flows continue to stretch out over longer distances, and the superpowers of China, the U.S. and India are set to retain their leading trade growth positions. But there are new hotspots of opportunity emerging – with Viet Nam, Indonesia and the Philippines expected to rank highly for speed and scale of growth over the next 5 years.
The resilience of trade in a turbulent global business environment is evident. The results highlighted in this report suggest that decision-makers should prepare to seize opportunities and manage risks in an increasingly complex global trade environment.
With maps, charts and other data visualizations to bring the facts to life, the report serves as a unique resource for emerging trade opportunities – helping your Kiwi business to focus its international growth strategy on the most promising and prosperous markets around the globe.
Plan your cross-border growth strategy with the DHL Trade Atlas 2025.
If you’re looking to – or already do – ship internationally from New Zealand , this report is essential reading. Brought to you by the world’s most international company, it reflects DHL's position at the heart of global trade and their commitment to help customers identify the most prosperous markets for expansion.
Download the report nowDHL Trade Atlas 2025: 10 Key Takeaways
1. Faster forecast growth, greater uncertainty
Global trade is forecast to grow at a modestly faster pace over the next five years than during the preceding decade. However, record high uncertainty about future trade policies clouds the outlook.
2. Trump tariff impact
Even if all tariff increases proposed by the Trump administration are implemented and countries retaliate in turn, global trade is forecast to continue growing – but at a much slower pace.
3. Made-in-China content finding new routes to U.S.
The share of U.S. imports coming directly from China continues to fall, but U.S. reliance on made-in-China content has not declined substantially. U.S. imports from other countries contain more inputs from China, and U.S. direct imports from China may be underreported.
4. Global geopolitical shifts limited
Geopolitically driven shifts in global trade patterns remain limited and appear to have stalled in 2024. While trade between blocs of close allies declined relative to trade within these blocs in 2022 and 2023, there were no further declines over the first nine months of 2024.
5. Recent growth leaders
Three countries ranked among the top 30 worldwide on both the speed (growth rate) and the scale (absolute amount) of their goods trade volume growth over the past five years: the United Arab Emirates, Viet Nam, and Ireland.
6. Forecast future growth leaders
During the next five years, India, Viet Nam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth. India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind only China (12%) and the United States (10%).
7. Standout regions
South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia are forecast to achieve much faster trade volume growth than all other regions from 2024 to 2029. However, slower-growing Europe is forecast to generate a larger share (30%) of the world’s total trade growth. High income economies are forecast to generate 58% of trade growth, while low- and middle-income economies generate 42%.
8. Long distance trade going strong
Contrary to predictions that recent disruptions would lead to more regionalized trade patterns, trade took place over the longest average distance on record during the first nine months of 2024 (5,000 km). The share taking place inside major geographic regions declined to a new low (51%).
9. Trade leaders by sector
Most trade is in manufactured goods, but price increases have boosted the value of trade in mineral fuels. From 2017 to 2022, the categories with the largest increases in the value of goods traded were mineral fuels, electrical machinery and equipment, industrial machinery, and pharmaceuticals.
10. Large headroom for trade growth
Even after decades of increases in the integration of the world economy via trade, only 21% of the value of all goods and services produced around the world ultimately ends up in a different country from where it was produced. There is still very large potential for future trade growth.
Key Highlights for New Zealand Exporters
As we look towards the future of international trade, New Zealand's position is set to improve significantly according to the latest insights from the DHL Trade Atlas.
The data highlights several key trends that are expected to shape the landscape for New Zealand exporters between 2025 and 2029. Here’s a deep dive into the critical highlights:
1. Improvement in Speed and Scale Rankings
New Zealand is poised for a remarkable leap in its global trade rankings. Currently ranked 126th in speed, the country is expected to rise 25 spots to 101st by 2029, with a projected growth rate of 3%. Similarly, in scale rankings, New Zealand is forecasted to move from 88th to 64th, with an impressive absolute growth rate of $15.5 billion over the next four years. This growth reflects New Zealand's increasing capacity to engage in international trade efficiently.
2. Surge in Trade Value Change
The trade value for New Zealand is set to experience significant growth. Between 2019 and 2024, the country achieved a trade value increase of 10.6 billion, ranking 75th globally. However, projections suggest a rise to 55th place with an anticipated increase of 26.9 billion by 2029. Notably, exports are expected to grow by $15.3 billion, moving New Zealand from 83rd to 47th in export trade change rankings. This upward trajectory is indicative of New Zealand's robust export potential.
3. Positive Trade Volume Change
New Zealand's trade volume is also on the rise. The country is expected to climb 24 spots from 88th to 64th in overall volume change, with a growth forecast of 15.5 billion. Export volume change is predicted to increase by 5.7 billion, moving New Zealand from 84th to 69th place. Import volume is set to grow by $9.8 billion, enhancing its position from 83rd to 58th. These figures underscore a burgeoning trade environment that exporters can leverage.
4. Strength in Long-Distance Trade
Contrary to expectations of a shift towards regionalized trade due to recent tariff disruptions, the DHL Atlas report indicates that global trade has reached unprecedented distances. In the first nine months of 2024, the average trade distance was 5,000 km, highlighting New Zealand's ability to engage in long-distance trade effectively. This is especially relevant for exports to markets beyond Australia, reinforcing New Zealand's role in the global supply chain.
5. Diverse Export Landscape
New Zealand's export profile is dominated by dairy products (27%) and meat (13%), with China being the top destination for both categories. The country's import landscape includes industrial machinery (15%) and vehicles (14%), primarily sourced from China and Japan. Notably, sectors such as Fashion Apparel, Beauty & Cosmetics, and Healthcare products have emerged as significant contributors to export growth, making up approximately 55-60% of DHL Express's export shipments.
6. Optimistic Outlook Amid Challenges
Despite the challenges posed by record-high uncertainty regarding future trade policies, the outlook for New Zealand's trade growth remains optimistic. The potential for international trade expansion is substantial, with only 21% of global goods and services produced ultimately crossing borders. This indicates a significant opportunity for New Zealand exporters to tap into new markets and enhance their global presence.
Plan your cross-border growth strategy with the DHL Trade Atlas 2025.
If you’re looking to – or already do – ship internationally from New Zealand, this report is essential reading. Brought to you by the world’s most international company, it reflects DHL's position at the heart of global trade and their commitment to help customers identify the most prosperous markets for expansion.
Download the report now
